The Footballers Evaluation Result

** Update for 2024 Euro 

I. Introduction and Historical Ranking Review

     The football game is the sports competed by teamwork. It is anyway undeniable that the extraordinary individual footballers who performed and made a high impact on the team is one of the main attractive identities of football. Although football game’s main purpose is to win the trophy, the annual awards have been given to players indicates the social value on individual performance. Moreover, the discussion about all-time best players are widely interested and popularized among football fans while none of official historical awards was ever held.  

       IFFHS Player of the Century^[1] Election in 1999 that was based on polls of journalists and former players but no specific details are revealed. World Soccer Magazine^[2], conducted the polls for its reader and applied the points for voting points. As the votes is just depended on personal view or criteria of the voters, the large different factors were distributed within a poll result that is eventually unable to conclude the status of the best and the biased selection is commonly existed. 

    Association of football statisticians (AFS) made ranking by considering goalscores against match plays and position for forwards and midfielders, the matches without conceding a goal for defender and goalkeeper and matches to play as captain including titles won. However, the result is noticeable that standard of competition against those statistics are not applied and some quantitative attributes are goal conceding and titles is characterized as team performance.    

    There is none of the historical ranking works based on performance evaluation found. Thus, this work is attempted to study and evaluate all-time best performers in overall career by complying and analyzing the verified secondary evidences such as awards, media rating, quantitative statistical analysis or even valuable interpretation or surmise from articles/discussion and applied to the methodological implementation to establish the all-time best players ranking by individual performance of all positions combined.

II. Methodology

The methodology is summarized from the full procedure in
http://xtrahistory.blogspot.com/2013/01/Rating-Methodology.html

1. Individual Performance Classification

    

    1.1 Domestic League 

        Total Average Rating = (∑ Match Rating)/Total Match Played

        Amount of Performance : Domestic League Season is calculated from ratio between games played and total seasonal games.The performance is considered and will be updated in every half of season. In general case, 85 (more than 40 games) - 90 % (30 Games) participation is considered as 100 % amount and proportional calculation is required in less participation. Exceptional case : if any league game is available equal to or less than 30 games, it will be calculated base on ratio between games played and 30.

    1.2) Elimination/Multi-Stage Competition 

          The Maximum Eliminated Amount Coefficient Table

Total Average Rating = ∑ (Coefficient x Match Rating)/∑ Coefficient)

Amount of Performance : Major Tournament performance is calculated from ∑ Coefficient/ Total Coefficient

    1.3) International League Tournament 

         The Maximum Placed Amount Coefficient Table

Total Average Rating = ∑ Match Rating x Place Coefficient)/2)

Amount of Performance : Major Tournament performance is calculated from Place Coefficient/2

    1.4) Rating Range Classification

              6.5  – 7 : Ordinary International-Class

          >7 – 7.5 : Supreme International-Class

          >7.5 – 8 : Ordinary World-Class

          >8 – 8.5 : Supreme World-Class

          >8.5 : Phenomenon-Class

  2 Proportional Criteria 

   The Competition criteria is set as below ;
     1) Domestic at 45 % basically and it could be increased to 50 % at maximum for limited opportunity factor. 
   2) International Club at 20 % for European Cup era and 22 % for UEFA Champion League Era. The percentages are allowed to be increased to 25 % at maximum if international country opportunity is limited or it could be reduced in limitless depend on level of limited opportunity factor.
    3) International Country at 35 % for European Cup era and 33 % for UEFA Champion League Era.  it could be increased to 50 % at maximum for limited opportunity factor or it could be reduced at minimum 25 % depend on level of limited opportunity factor. 

    The Competition criteria standard table is designed based on competition standard comparison in any era.
      

  3. Descending Accumulative Calculation Method (DAC Method)

    The method is designed in purpose to set the weight between performing classes. The peak amount will be calculated based on higher coefficient and descend for the lower ranks of class. The performance amount is controlled by standard value. Thus, any surplus (in some area) or deficit will be conducted to the rating result.  

     Formulation 

Domestic Season : ∑ (actual n) (Performance Part X Sequence Coefficient)*100

                                         ∑ n = 10 Sequence Coefficient

International Club :

∑ (n <5,8) ( Performance Part x Competition Coeff. x Sequence Coeff.)*100

                                 ∑ n = 5,8 Sequence Coefficient

International Country Tournament :

             (∑ (actual n) (Performance Part X Sequence Coefficient)*100

                                  ∑ n = 3,5 Sequence Coefficient

* n value in ∑ Sequence Coefficient is considered base on standard of participating frequency consists of frequency of competition held, ratio between qualifying teams per all teams in the competition and importance of tournament in term of rotation policy.

  

Performance Class Coefficient Table

The performance class coefficient is not equal between different competition levels because of its difference of participating opportunity. The competition level with the given lower opportunity will be set in higher coefficient within the same performance class.

Performance State

The peak (high) and low performance is calculated based on competition level as well. The amount is a season or an international tournament. The amount of international tournament is also calculated based on coefficient of competition. 

4. Total Ability Rating

The player ability attribute is evaluated through skill evaluation project (http://xtraimmortal.blogspot.com/2013/04/Total-Skill.html). The total ability rating will be calculated based on weight criteria that is set from value analysis.  (The criteria weight is showed in scorecard divided into attacker and defensive player position, the multi-functional players will be subjected to his best ability function). The value analysis is the determination of difficulty level between ability attributes with the factors are the quick and intelligent thinking, the elaboration, the risk level of mistake and the options.

5. Addition, Deduction and Exclusion of Performing Status

In case of player's remarkable superiority in special condition, they will be added bonus. In case of player's notorious inferiority in special condition, they will be either deducted the point or excluded. 

          1) Trophy : Players who won the major international title will obtain trophy bonus depend on competition level and condition as following ; World Cup (0.2 - 0.3), Euro (0.15 - 0.2), Copa America (0.1 - 0.15), European Cup and pre-1986 Copa Libertadores Cup (0.075, if won continental cup also = 0.1), UEFA Champion League (0.1). UEFA Cup (0.03-0.05), Cup Winners Cup (0.3) Players will be eligible to obtain bonus point at coefficient of impact level at 1, 0.75, 0.5.  

      2) Greatness : Players who created historical value with exceptional influence on his team will be obtained bonus 1 – 3 points depend on level of historical impact.  

       

6. Conclusion and Classfication of All-Time Performance

   Conditional Margin Value is an additional set of outermost factors in purpose to reduce variance in the basic calculation system from various circumstances. 

  Conditional Margin Value = HSP*(0.1)+LSP*(0.2)

HSP = The Highest State Performance amount (HSP)

LSP = The Lowest State of Performance amount (LSP)
         

       LSP Definition : The All-Time Individual Performance will be also deducted the point base on the amount of failure performance in the case player failed to sustain average standard in exception of injury and other approved reasons within specific period as below condition. 

Basic Total Score is calculated based on proportional criteria of competition level table.

Final Score = Basic Total Score *0.8 + Skill/Ability Rating *0.24 + Conditional Margin Value

Rule of Decisive Factor

In case Total Score between ranks is resulted equally (not difference > 0.1),
The primary decisive factor is Peak Performance

The secondary decisive factor is Total Ability/Skill (is also required > 0.1 to make difference)

The third decisive factor is Basic Total Score

The fourth decisive factor is Lowest Performance

The fifth decisive factor is International Performance 

III. Implementation

      Classification of players’ performance by season for club part or by tournament or international part from direct/indirect evidences of rating and calculated the rating point that is at least in international-class range with participating quantitative value in partition unit. Then applying proportional weight from highest to lowest and applying positional coefficient for goalkeeper and defender. Then, bringing the points in each part of competition level to combine based on given proportion by the given conditional criteria to calculate for the basic score. Additional trophy/historical/age bonus, performance state and total ability are totally calculated. 

   Designate tthe significant circumstantial factors based on era and team and applied to the actions for rating

1) Standard of Competition : Rate performance class against standard of competition

2) Availability and Format of Competition > Adjust in std. value of Participation Amount

3) Injury versus football rules > Adjust in std. value of Participation Amount

    [No penalty card rule at specific era]

4) Fatigue due to the number and competitiveness of matches > Rate performance class with considering average standard of performance

    [The number of games and its competitiveness in club level impacts on fatigue at international country performance]

5) Quality of Teammates > Rate performance class against quality of teammates

    [The better quality of teammates is significant in term of chance of participation only. For the performance, the quality of teammates factor is insignificant when the high quality of teammates needs players' ability to adapt the style of play to achieve compatibility with the high level of teamwork. In contrary, the lower quality of teammates could provide more chance for a player to be extraordinary as they're the main pillar]

IV. Result

The Greatest Footballers of All-Time

In seasonal rating, the seasonal year shows the year of the 2^nd half season such as 12 means (2011 -2012 season). Amount of performance is also considered based on appearances. 

  T means Trophy Bonus, H means Historical Greatness Bonus

The Ability Rating

The Greatest Domestic Footballers of All-Time

The Greatest International Country Footballers of All-Time

The Greatest International Club Footballers of All-Time

V. Discussion

      The methodological system is designed to find the commensurate solution between peak and consistency of players’ entire career performance by applying proportional weight, covering all conditions and circumstances throughout history and the opportune limitation of players’ participation is also categorized and standardized. The performance is counted only equal and above international-class as the various lower levels are considered not significant in group of consideration. However, the surmise and interpretation on the restriction of secondary evidences is inevitably biased. By this context, the qualitative evaluation for input the system is unscientifically approached but highly involved with value definition created by social value.

     The study with almost all experiments suggests Messi has become the best footballer of all-time with significantly better than his predecessors Pele and Diego Maradona. Lionel Messi is the greatest domestic footballer of all-time with 9 times domestic players of teh world while Pele won seven. Messi finished 2nd best international club player ever and 4th at best international country player ever. Pele finished 3rd in both domestic and international country. He has sustained as one of the best players in the World in 12 years while Pele was the best or one of top players in the World only 8 years. Messi had a failure moment in 2018 World Cup and 2019 Copa America and other than that he was criticized never achieved his potential. However, according to the study of fatigue factors impacts on players performance at international country tournament after encountering backbreaking tasks in club level, it is found that the fatigue factor is significant to influence on decline of players' performance particularly for players in modern era with the club games is at around 45 - 50 games. Between 2008 to 2019, Messi played at club level more than 45 games for all seasons. Between 1950 and 1970, Pele played at club level > 40 games in 4 seasons. The study also shows that many top performers in major tournament didn't manage to have a great achievement on club level at season before tournament. Van Basten in 1990 and Ronaldo 2002 was injury and played a few games at club level. Zidane wasn't outstanding in 2006 club season, in 2014, Neuer is arguably the best player of the tournament when none of attackers reached a standard of supreme-world-class. Johan Cruyff was superb in 1974 World Cup after the season he didn't play at international club with Barcelona, etc, Messi was a prolific scorer at club level in every season and this could consume his energy significantly over the long period. 

   Pele's career was not fulfilled with adequate amount of achievement as his team due to various external circumstances prevented Brazil and Santos took part in continental tournaments like Copa America and Copa Libertadores Cup despite entitling to enter. However, if analyze his chance to win more Copa Libertadores, he would have won another title in 1959 if the tournament was existed. Other than that, Santos wouldn't be eligible or he was not in his top form or injury. Another contributing factor is unavailability of penalty card allow opponents make him injury over the period. He is arguably never achieved the best player of the tournament in any world cup second Didi and Jairzinho in 1958 and 1970 respectively. Although Pele never played in Europe, the standard of Brazilian national league or Torneo Rio Sao Paolo is comparable. Pele has a higher productivity ratio in National team football than that of Messi but Pele is less influential if taken number of team productivity into account and this represents how was Brazil encompassed by top stars. 

    

   Maradona proved himself in a higher standard of competition in Italian Series A. Internationally, Maradona has an obvious advantage in national team career when he achieved a higher influential level on Argentina in World Cup, is rated as the best player ever in international country part. However, the decisive part is Copa America and international club stage where Maradona’s team were often eliminated in the earlier rounds and also did not participate in several seasons as his club did not qualify.

      Johan Cruyff is rated as the player with highest ability ever but his prime career that he led Ajax to dominate Europe during the early 1970s is too short and his career in Spain is rather decline significantly. C.Ronaldo, Johan Cruyff Franz Beckenbauer shares the 4th best player ever in basic total score but they're ranked by total ability, Beckenbauer is the most consistent players in every level of competition he played but his prime is much inferior to the group of best ever. He is rated as Bundesliga best player by kicker in only 6 years, being rated below Vogts in most of years during 1st half 1970s.  

      Di Stefano has an outstanding club career consistency and longevity. However, He failed to lead Spain qualified for 1958 World Cup and was injury in 1962 tournament, is a big flaw prevents him to be rated among the best ever and is even controversial to beat Platini. Platini is clearly superior to his contemporary candidate likes Zico although his skill is unanimously inferior to Zico as he has a great international career. Puskas was suspended from football 2 years between 1956 and 1958 interrupted and effects continuity of his career and after moved for Real Madrid, he switched to play for Spain in only a few matches. Zidane is rated in the similar level of performance to Zico but get higher place as a preference of international recognition.      

     The three Brazilian consists of Zico, Garrincha, Ronaldo is very equal to be the second best player ever for their nation. The study suggests Zico has the most advantageous in domestic consistency among them and he has superior ability to the other two. Matthaeus is the most consistent player ever that allows him to be competitive against other high talented players although his peak is very short. Although the system gives a higher weight from the peak descending to the decline, Marco Van Basten, George Best, and Ronaldinho were evaluated below top 25. The large number of disappearances affected on their longevity is a main reason for the first two and the long decline period of inconsistency for Ronaldinho.     

    The best goalkeeper ever Lev Yashin also appeared below top 25. He was not successful in World Cup by his own standard. Paolo Maldini, the best pure defender ever, beat his senior Franco Baresi by greater international opportunity even Baresi’s peak is rated higher. Stanley Matthews is arguably the most overrated player ever when he is often voted in top 20 players of all-time although he just became a regular starter of England lately at 23 years old and then the war prevented him from football for 7 years. He came back impressively if consider his age but achieve very little with his club and he never became star of World Cup that England was failure in related tournaments.

 Reference

[1] http://www.rsssf.com/miscellaneous/iffhs-century.html

[2]http://www.englandfootballonline.com/TeamHons/HonsWldSocPlyrsCent.html

[3]http://www.rsssf.com/miscellaneous/afstop100.html